Iowa caucuses not going first?

by Max Fletcher, Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 04:48:07 PM EST

It's already being talked about at Daily Kos, but I haven't seen anything here. Via Political Wire:

"The South Carolina Republicans won't dictate what Iowa does... The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for January 14th, 2008 and we are moving forward with plans for that date. Iowa will hold the first in the nation caucuses."

If this holds true, the new Democratic primary calendar may look something like this:

January 12th: New Hampshire
January 14th: Iowa
January 19th: Nevada
January 29th: South Carolina and Florida
February 5th: Super Tuesday

Hard to say exactly how this would affect things, but it's reasonable to assume that the last-minute undecided voters (and weak leaners) in Iowa would be influenced by the media coverage of the New Hampshire primary, similar to what's happened in reverse order in recent years.


Poll
Which state's caucus or primary will be first?
Iowa
New Hampshire

Votes: 13
Results : Vote Link : Polls


Tags: Iowa caucuses, 2008 Presidential Primaries (all tags)

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SC Dems say they won't move. (none / 0)

NH now has no reason to move.  Neither does Iowa.


by jsamuel on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 04:49:46 PM EST

Re: Iowa caucuses not going first? (none / 0)

I don't believe it for a minute.    New Hampshire has to move before South Carolina as a matter of NH law and it doesn't matter that it is only the South Carolina Republicans that are jumping ahead of Florida.    New Hampshire also probably intended to try to be before Nevada as well anyway.    The only question about New Hampshire will be whether New Hampshire holds it's primary on Saturday January 12 or Tuesday January 8.  

As has been previously discussed,  Iowa law mandates both that it's caucuses be in the same calendar year as the general election and at least 8 days before the first primary.  

If New Hampshire moves to January 12,  Iowa will be on January 4.  

I'm still expecting both of them to wait until the last minute (September perhaps) and then announce they are both moving to December.    Neither New Hampshire nor Iowa intend to give up their positions without a fight.


by AlanR on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 05:02:52 PM EST

Re: Iowa caucuses not going first? (none / 0)

I think Iowa will definitely move to be first.


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by robliberal on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 05:21:04 PM EST

Re: Iowa caucuses not going first? (none / 0)

South Carolina won't force Iowa to move up, but New Hampshire almost certainly will.

Dan Balz of the Washington Post also speculated that if New Hampshire and Iowa both move up, the Democratic party in South Carolina would come under pressure to move up to match the Republican primary.

And then there's Michigan.  It's total chaos.


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by psericks on Thu Aug 09, 2007 at 05:37:10 PM EST


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